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STOCK FUND SWITCH STRATEGY PROGRAM
Copyright 1982
by
D. A. Van Putte
The purpose of this program is to assist the investor in
managing stock and other market data which can be used to
provide greater investment return in a telephone-switch mutual
fund or a similar plan which allows intra-fund conversions.
Since most mutual fund values move in the same direction as the
general market, the program strategy used favors a switch to a
common stock fund during a rising market and a switch to a cash
or money market fund on a falling market. Since there is no
guarantee that the user's specific mutual fund will follow the
market, the final decision is up to the investor in making use
of this strategy for his specific investment plan.
The strategy for mutual funds was proposed in the PERSONAL
FINANCE newsletter, Vol. IX, No. 11 published by Kephart
Communications Inc. in an article entitled, "Beat the Market
with No-Load Mutual Funds" by R. Fabian, an SEC-Registered
investment advisor. The strategy proposes that a rising market
is predicted when the weekly stock value rises above its 39-
week moving average and either the Dow Industrial or the Dow
Transportation Index rise above their 39-week moving average.
A falling market is predicted when the weekly stock fund value
falls below its' 39-week moving average and either of the Dow
Indecies falls below its' 39-week moving average.
The program is entirely self contained with multiple
options to manage and utilize the fund and market data to help
make decisions on a personal portfolio. It is very user
oriented for ease of application, with no knowledge required of
programming for effective program utilization. The user need
only to update the data files weekly after he has gone thru the
program prompted steps to create his personal files. A decision
table summarizes the current market and fund direction each
week and restates the program strategy. A one year plot of the
fund and the Dow weekly and 39-week moving averages makes
trends plainly and colorfully visable on the screen. The
program is run by loading the menu program in a 32K machine.
The menu in turn calls the SFSSP program which displays the
nine options available. The program options include the
following modules for managing up to nine funds simultaneously
as follows:
SFSSP PROGRAM Page 2
1) Create Stock and Dow Files.
2) Enter Stock and Dow Weekly Data/Print Decision
Table.
3) Print Decision Table.
4) Print and Change Existing Data Files.
5) Input Multiple Weeks of Data.
6) Plot Stock and Dow Performance for One Year.
7) Add a New Stock File.
8) Explanation of Program Strategy.
9) Store Data and End Program.
Each of the options will be covered in the following sections:
OPTION 1: Create Stock and Dow Files.
File creation is the first active step in making use use
of the program. By selecting this option from the menu the user
will be prompted to enter the name of each of the stock funds
he wishes to manage in this program. Once the names have been
entered, the program reserves the disk space required to store
over three years of stock and Dow data. Other files can be
created at this time such, as 'New Lows', which could be used
to further predict market trends. This option not need be used
again until the files are full. If the user wishes to retain
the full 159 weeks of data, he should transfer the program to
another disk and create a new set of files. If the 159 week
base is sufficient, the program will automatically delete the
159th week value at the time new data is entered.
OPTION 2: Enter Weekly Stock and Dow Data/Print Decision
Table.
This option prompts the user to enter the week ending
stock and Dow values. The stock values must be converted from
fractions to decimal. A check step for each value follows each
entry to allow corrections in that entry. A RETURN repy at this
step continues the data entry without any changes.
The data entry stage is followed by a manipulation of each
file. The current or latest entry is placed into the 1st
position of each file and each of the other file values is
shifted by one location upward. Therefore, at any time, the
most current data stored is in file position number one. If
the user collects several weeks to be entered a once, he needs
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to enter the oldest week values first and the most recent week
values last to keep the files in chronological order. This
must be done by repeatedly selecting Option 2. See Option 5
for entering weekly data which dates beyond the existing file
data. Following the file rearrangement, the Decision Table is
printed. The current value entered for each stock or Dow file
is displayed along with its moving 39-week average. If less
than 39 weeks or data is present, an average is printed with
the actual number of weeks used to establish the average. For
the convenience of the user an analysis of the current value of
each file relative to its 39-week average is presented and the
program strategy is restated. If errors in the data are
suspected, the user can proceed to Option 4 to make changes.
The Decision Table can be printed independent of data input by
selecting Option 3.
OPTION 3: Prints Decision Table on Request.
OPTION 4: Print and Change Existing Data Files.
This module allows the user to change any value in the
existing week positions of the data files. It is not normally
used to enter new data except for the positions in a newly
created stock file up to the maximum week entries of the other
files. The option prints the file data either to the screen or
to a printer in groups of ten weeks and prompts the user for
any changes. If no changes are specified, the module returns
control to the menu.
OPTION 5: Input Multiple Weeks of Data.
This option allows the user to add a number of weeks of
data directly to the files. The weeks of data entered must
be later (higher) than weeks presently in the file data. For
example, if data exists in the files for weeks 1-51, then the
user can add data from week 52 up to week 159. The user
specifies week 52 for the beginning week and week 159 for
the ending week. If no data has been added to the files as
yet, mass entries can be made for all weeks from week 1 thru
week 159. Mass entry of data to at least week 39 quickly
establishes a set of working files and is highly recommended.
The module also allows individual values of the current
file to be changed by specifying the existing week(s) for the
change. A RETURN entry for any given value leaves the value
unchanged. The beginning week specified may be the same as
the ending week to facilitate changes in one week only.
OPTION 6: Plot Stock and Dow Performance for One Year.
This module plots a selected stock file and the two Dow
Indecies for a period of one year. Both the weekly values and
the moving 39-week averages are shown simultaneously for all
three files. For any given week which does not have 38 weeks
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of previous data to compute a 39-week average, no average will
be plotted. The plotting period is specified by entering the
ending week of the period. For example, if the user wishes to
plot the preceeding year ending with the current week, he
would enter the number 1 (current week) for the week ending
value. Any file created by Options 1 or 7 can be plotted vs.
the Dow Indecies. This provides the capability of creating
files of other market indicators to be compared graphically or
in the Decision Table in addition to the stock files.
OPTION 7: Add a New Stock File.
This module allows the user to add a new stock file at any
time as long as the maximum number of nine is not exceeded. In
a similar fashion to the file creation in Option 1, the user
enters the file name and the program reserves the required
space on the disk. At the completion of this step, data may be
entered in the created file at any time.
OPTION 8: Prints the source of the program strategy and a
capsule summary of the strategy.
OPTION 9: Store Data and End Program.
This is a must option for the user to end his program
if data has been entered or edited or a new file(s) have been
created. The module writes all the data from the session to
the disk and properly closes the files. If this step is
inadvertantly omitted or the session is ended abruptly by a
disk or user error, the user will have to redo the session.
CAUTION: The program should be used as one factor in the
decision making process. It is based on tested principles,
but it may not apply to a specific stock fund because of other
variables not within the scope of this program. The user is
cautioned to consider all the factors affecting his own
personal fund before making a switch decision. The program
author makes no expressed or implied warrenty of success in
making use of this program for the user's specific portfolio.
ERRORS: Although the program has been thoroughly tested,
errors may still be encountered. Please convey any errors or
problems encountered to the author. Prompt assistance will be
provided to all certified owners.
Author: D. A. Van Putte
Address: 18 Cross Bow Dr.
Rochester, N.Y. 14624
Telephone: 716-889-4994