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STOCK FUND SWITCH STRATEGY PROGRAM Copyright 1982 by D. A. Van Putte The purpose of this program is to assist the investor in managing stock and other market data which can be used to provide greater investment return in a telephone-switch mutual fund or a similar plan which allows intra-fund conversions. Since most mutual fund values move in the same direction as the general market, the program strategy used favors a switch to a common stock fund during a rising market and a switch to a cash or money market fund on a falling market. Since there is no guarantee that the user's specific mutual fund will follow the market, the final decision is up to the investor in making use of this strategy for his specific investment plan. The strategy for mutual funds was proposed in the PERSONAL FINANCE newsletter, Vol. IX, No. 11 published by Kephart Communications Inc. in an article entitled, "Beat the Market with No-Load Mutual Funds" by R. Fabian, an SEC-Registered investment advisor. The strategy proposes that a rising market is predicted when the weekly stock value rises above its 39- week moving average and either the Dow Industrial or the Dow Transportation Index rise above their 39-week moving average. A falling market is predicted when the weekly stock fund value falls below its' 39-week moving average and either of the Dow Indecies falls below its' 39-week moving average. The program is entirely self contained with multiple options to manage and utilize the fund and market data to help make decisions on a personal portfolio. It is very user oriented for ease of application, with no knowledge required of programming for effective program utilization. The user need only to update the data files weekly after he has gone thru the program prompted steps to create his personal files. A decision table summarizes the current market and fund direction each week and restates the program strategy. A one year plot of the fund and the Dow weekly and 39-week moving averages makes trends plainly and colorfully visable on the screen. The program is run by loading the menu program in a 32K machine. The menu in turn calls the SFSSP program which displays the nine options available. The program options include the following modules for managing up to nine funds simultaneously as follows: SFSSP PROGRAM Page 2 1) Create Stock and Dow Files. 2) Enter Stock and Dow Weekly Data/Print Decision Table. 3) Print Decision Table. 4) Print and Change Existing Data Files. 5) Input Multiple Weeks of Data. 6) Plot Stock and Dow Performance for One Year. 7) Add a New Stock File. 8) Explanation of Program Strategy. 9) Store Data and End Program. Each of the options will be covered in the following sections: OPTION 1: Create Stock and Dow Files. File creation is the first active step in making use use of the program. By selecting this option from the menu the user will be prompted to enter the name of each of the stock funds he wishes to manage in this program. Once the names have been entered, the program reserves the disk space required to store over three years of stock and Dow data. Other files can be created at this time such, as 'New Lows', which could be used to further predict market trends. This option not need be used again until the files are full. If the user wishes to retain the full 159 weeks of data, he should transfer the program to another disk and create a new set of files. If the 159 week base is sufficient, the program will automatically delete the 159th week value at the time new data is entered. OPTION 2: Enter Weekly Stock and Dow Data/Print Decision Table. This option prompts the user to enter the week ending stock and Dow values. The stock values must be converted from fractions to decimal. A check step for each value follows each entry to allow corrections in that entry. A RETURN repy at this step continues the data entry without any changes. The data entry stage is followed by a manipulation of each file. The current or latest entry is placed into the 1st position of each file and each of the other file values is shifted by one location upward. Therefore, at any time, the most current data stored is in file position number one. If the user collects several weeks to be entered a once, he needs SFSSP PROGRAM Page 3 to enter the oldest week values first and the most recent week values last to keep the files in chronological order. This must be done by repeatedly selecting Option 2. See Option 5 for entering weekly data which dates beyond the existing file data. Following the file rearrangement, the Decision Table is printed. The current value entered for each stock or Dow file is displayed along with its moving 39-week average. If less than 39 weeks or data is present, an average is printed with the actual number of weeks used to establish the average. For the convenience of the user an analysis of the current value of each file relative to its 39-week average is presented and the program strategy is restated. If errors in the data are suspected, the user can proceed to Option 4 to make changes. The Decision Table can be printed independent of data input by selecting Option 3. OPTION 3: Prints Decision Table on Request. OPTION 4: Print and Change Existing Data Files. This module allows the user to change any value in the existing week positions of the data files. It is not normally used to enter new data except for the positions in a newly created stock file up to the maximum week entries of the other files. The option prints the file data either to the screen or to a printer in groups of ten weeks and prompts the user for any changes. If no changes are specified, the module returns control to the menu. OPTION 5: Input Multiple Weeks of Data. This option allows the user to add a number of weeks of data directly to the files. The weeks of data entered must be later (higher) than weeks presently in the file data. For example, if data exists in the files for weeks 1-51, then the user can add data from week 52 up to week 159. The user specifies week 52 for the beginning week and week 159 for the ending week. If no data has been added to the files as yet, mass entries can be made for all weeks from week 1 thru week 159. Mass entry of data to at least week 39 quickly establishes a set of working files and is highly recommended. The module also allows individual values of the current file to be changed by specifying the existing week(s) for the change. A RETURN entry for any given value leaves the value unchanged. The beginning week specified may be the same as the ending week to facilitate changes in one week only. OPTION 6: Plot Stock and Dow Performance for One Year. This module plots a selected stock file and the two Dow Indecies for a period of one year. Both the weekly values and the moving 39-week averages are shown simultaneously for all three files. For any given week which does not have 38 weeks SFSSP PROGRAM Page 4 of previous data to compute a 39-week average, no average will be plotted. The plotting period is specified by entering the ending week of the period. For example, if the user wishes to plot the preceeding year ending with the current week, he would enter the number 1 (current week) for the week ending value. Any file created by Options 1 or 7 can be plotted vs. the Dow Indecies. This provides the capability of creating files of other market indicators to be compared graphically or in the Decision Table in addition to the stock files. OPTION 7: Add a New Stock File. This module allows the user to add a new stock file at any time as long as the maximum number of nine is not exceeded. In a similar fashion to the file creation in Option 1, the user enters the file name and the program reserves the required space on the disk. At the completion of this step, data may be entered in the created file at any time. OPTION 8: Prints the source of the program strategy and a capsule summary of the strategy. OPTION 9: Store Data and End Program. This is a must option for the user to end his program if data has been entered or edited or a new file(s) have been created. The module writes all the data from the session to the disk and properly closes the files. If this step is inadvertantly omitted or the session is ended abruptly by a disk or user error, the user will have to redo the session. CAUTION: The program should be used as one factor in the decision making process. It is based on tested principles, but it may not apply to a specific stock fund because of other variables not within the scope of this program. The user is cautioned to consider all the factors affecting his own personal fund before making a switch decision. The program author makes no expressed or implied warrenty of success in making use of this program for the user's specific portfolio. ERRORS: Although the program has been thoroughly tested, errors may still be encountered. Please convey any errors or problems encountered to the author. Prompt assistance will be provided to all certified owners. Author: D. A. Van Putte Address: 18 Cross Bow Dr. Rochester, N.Y. 14624 Telephone: 716-889-4994